Cost
of construction will increase by 10-15%, demand will decrease, and the
number of start-ups in the primary market declined. So the prospects are
seen in 2015 CEO of "YIT St. Petersburg" Mikhail Voziyanov.
- The outgoing year was a record year in terms of offers of housing under construction - every month an average of the market leads 12 new projects.About a third more than the year before. Your company also put quantitative records?
- No, the volume of output of new facilities in 2013 and 2014, we are about the same - 107 sq. M. m and 105.5 thousand sq. m. m. We have acted according to plan, not focusing on the surge in demand in one quarter. And other developers, I think, too. The real estate market to make spontaneous decisions about the launch of objects is impossible.We do not bake bread today made three rolls, and five tomorrow, because it is sold. We have a very long cycle of project preparation. From site acquisition to enter the construction site runs two or three years. Land under those objects that were derived on sale this year, bought in 2011.Only now we "ran" to the point where we can begin the construction.
- Such a long preparation for the construction site - because of the notorious administrative barriers in the industry?
- This is partly true. We all remember that in 2012-2013, after the change of command in the government of St. Petersburg, there was a pause in the coordination of project planning area (BSA).Today I can not say that in St. Petersburg some particularly high bureaucratic barriers.
So that an active market launch of many new projects for this year - objectively conditioned process, rather than the reaction of the construction business in the revival of demand.Though I must admit that since I have large developers in the portfolios of a large number of integrated development projects, it has become easier to adjust their marketing strategies.If the PPT agreed, the queue can be placed on the market one after another according to the change in sales.
- Some experts believe that the market is skewed: the offer is about to exceed the demand. Do you agree with that?
- According to analysts, compared with 2011 the volume of supply has doubled - up to 4 million square feet. m. The competition, of course, became more serious.But on the other hand, according to our estimates, 2 million square feet. m was insufficient to meet total demand.
At least until we can not see any "overproduction". This year, demand has been very uneven. A significant peak was recorded in the first quarter, which ended in April. Then we noticed a decrease - even lower than sales in the summer months of last year.And since September again see a gradual recovery among consumers and in the fourth - again good results. We performed a sales plan as for each of the six months, and for the year as a whole.I think at the end of the year will come to the performance, comparable with sales in 2013.
- What next? Experts say that the hype "squeeze" the purchasing power of the market and predict stagnation or even failure.
- It is very difficult to make predictions for the next year. Do not see the prerequisites to expect that it will be better than this. Do not rule out that the activity of buyers will be somewhat lower than in 2014.In the best case, in 2015 sales will be at the level of 2014. Most likely, the demand will be of the same wave-like nature, as in this year.
This will depend on many factors. For example, many Russians spring shifted accumulation is not in real estate, and currency.If the exchange rate will begin to strengthen, we see the opposite movement - the savings will be "taken out" of dollars and euros and invest in real estate. It will be seen in the first half.
Fluctuations in demand affected mostly new economy class. We work in higher segments - comfort, business elite.Our customers buy housing primarily for themselves, the share of investment purchases do not exceed 15-20%. And because the spring hype associated with the fact that customers take the money from the bank and shifted in real estate, and touched us in a lesser degree.But do not expect a big failure.
- How will the decline in demand in the market with a record volume of supply?
- If we recall the situation in 2009, the script may look like. It is possible that developers will reduce the rate of construction and even stop some objects.The level of sustainability of companies will depend, first, on the rate of sales of apartments, and secondly, on the situation in the banking sector. Already showing the first signs of problems in the banking sector: increased interest rate on loans, increases the number of failures in the banking financing projects. This applies not only to the construction, such a pattern throughout the economy.But it is clear that developers will have difficulty raising funds for new projects.
Let me remind you that the previous crisis for developers largely been connected with neprolongatsiey loans. I think that those who have passed the difficulties of 2008-2009, learned a lot and become more accurate in the policy to raise funds. But the fans are always risks.We are, by the way, these problems do not affect we receive funds from the Finnish company's headquarters, which borrows money in the Nordic banks.
- But perhaps you will be above other risks - associated with the weakening of the ruble. What is the share of imported materials and equipment in your "quality of Finnish homes"?
- The exact number can not name, now the company studied the issue.The share of imported materials depends on the class of the object. In the elite, it can reach 30%. Particularly high figure in finishing materials and engineering networks. But even the products of Russian producers were sensitive to appreciation of the euro and the dollar. Used in its production, usually imported components - additives, paints, accessories.But the future of new buildings touches to the fullest.
- What will be 2015 for the construction market of St. Petersburg?
- I think next year will not be as intense in the number of start-ups. Firstly, it is difficult to predict demand. Secondly, the uncertainty of the cost of construction. It is not clear how much money you need to invest in the facility to meet its obligations to the client.Third, have difficulties with financing.
If we talk about us, we do not look far ahead. Long-term plans in an unstable economic situation harmful. The planning horizon was reduced by about a month.If before I can clearly say that next year we introduced to the market two thousand apartments, now I do not presume to make such a statement.
However, do not rule out that even before the end of this year or early next year, we announced the implementation of another project. While I will not call. But one thing I can say today: new major projects is "Novoorlovskaya" next year we will not have.
- The outgoing year was a record year in terms of offers of housing under construction - every month an average of the market leads 12 new projects.About a third more than the year before. Your company also put quantitative records?
- No, the volume of output of new facilities in 2013 and 2014, we are about the same - 107 sq. M. m and 105.5 thousand sq. m. m. We have acted according to plan, not focusing on the surge in demand in one quarter. And other developers, I think, too. The real estate market to make spontaneous decisions about the launch of objects is impossible.We do not bake bread today made three rolls, and five tomorrow, because it is sold. We have a very long cycle of project preparation. From site acquisition to enter the construction site runs two or three years. Land under those objects that were derived on sale this year, bought in 2011.Only now we "ran" to the point where we can begin the construction.
- Such a long preparation for the construction site - because of the notorious administrative barriers in the industry?
- This is partly true. We all remember that in 2012-2013, after the change of command in the government of St. Petersburg, there was a pause in the coordination of project planning area (BSA).Today I can not say that in St. Petersburg some particularly high bureaucratic barriers.
So that an active market launch of many new projects for this year - objectively conditioned process, rather than the reaction of the construction business in the revival of demand.Though I must admit that since I have large developers in the portfolios of a large number of integrated development projects, it has become easier to adjust their marketing strategies.If the PPT agreed, the queue can be placed on the market one after another according to the change in sales.
- Some experts believe that the market is skewed: the offer is about to exceed the demand. Do you agree with that?
- According to analysts, compared with 2011 the volume of supply has doubled - up to 4 million square feet. m. The competition, of course, became more serious.But on the other hand, according to our estimates, 2 million square feet. m was insufficient to meet total demand.
At least until we can not see any "overproduction". This year, demand has been very uneven. A significant peak was recorded in the first quarter, which ended in April. Then we noticed a decrease - even lower than sales in the summer months of last year.And since September again see a gradual recovery among consumers and in the fourth - again good results. We performed a sales plan as for each of the six months, and for the year as a whole.I think at the end of the year will come to the performance, comparable with sales in 2013.
- What next? Experts say that the hype "squeeze" the purchasing power of the market and predict stagnation or even failure.
- It is very difficult to make predictions for the next year. Do not see the prerequisites to expect that it will be better than this. Do not rule out that the activity of buyers will be somewhat lower than in 2014.In the best case, in 2015 sales will be at the level of 2014. Most likely, the demand will be of the same wave-like nature, as in this year.
This will depend on many factors. For example, many Russians spring shifted accumulation is not in real estate, and currency.If the exchange rate will begin to strengthen, we see the opposite movement - the savings will be "taken out" of dollars and euros and invest in real estate. It will be seen in the first half.
Fluctuations in demand affected mostly new economy class. We work in higher segments - comfort, business elite.Our customers buy housing primarily for themselves, the share of investment purchases do not exceed 15-20%. And because the spring hype associated with the fact that customers take the money from the bank and shifted in real estate, and touched us in a lesser degree.But do not expect a big failure.
- How will the decline in demand in the market with a record volume of supply?
- If we recall the situation in 2009, the script may look like. It is possible that developers will reduce the rate of construction and even stop some objects.The level of sustainability of companies will depend, first, on the rate of sales of apartments, and secondly, on the situation in the banking sector. Already showing the first signs of problems in the banking sector: increased interest rate on loans, increases the number of failures in the banking financing projects. This applies not only to the construction, such a pattern throughout the economy.But it is clear that developers will have difficulty raising funds for new projects.
Let me remind you that the previous crisis for developers largely been connected with neprolongatsiey loans. I think that those who have passed the difficulties of 2008-2009, learned a lot and become more accurate in the policy to raise funds. But the fans are always risks.We are, by the way, these problems do not affect we receive funds from the Finnish company's headquarters, which borrows money in the Nordic banks.
- But perhaps you will be above other risks - associated with the weakening of the ruble. What is the share of imported materials and equipment in your "quality of Finnish homes"?
- The exact number can not name, now the company studied the issue.The share of imported materials depends on the class of the object. In the elite, it can reach 30%. Particularly high figure in finishing materials and engineering networks. But even the products of Russian producers were sensitive to appreciation of the euro and the dollar. Used in its production, usually imported components - additives, paints, accessories.But the future of new buildings touches to the fullest.
- What will be 2015 for the construction market of St. Petersburg?
- I think next year will not be as intense in the number of start-ups. Firstly, it is difficult to predict demand. Secondly, the uncertainty of the cost of construction. It is not clear how much money you need to invest in the facility to meet its obligations to the client.Third, have difficulties with financing.
If we talk about us, we do not look far ahead. Long-term plans in an unstable economic situation harmful. The planning horizon was reduced by about a month.If before I can clearly say that next year we introduced to the market two thousand apartments, now I do not presume to make such a statement.
However, do not rule out that even before the end of this year or early next year, we announced the implementation of another project. While I will not call. But one thing I can say today: new major projects is "Novoorlovskaya" next year we will not have.
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